https://www.amazon.com/Book-Why-Science-Cause-Effect/dp/046509760X
Saturday, August 02, 2025
Thoughts on Pearl's Book of Why: Lots of Good Intuition on Bayesian Networks, Sometimes with Strong Opinions
https://www.amazon.com/Book-Why-Science-Cause-Effect/dp/046509760X
Sunday, April 20, 2025
Thoughts on Zimmer's Airborne: Great book about an overlooked mode of disease transmission, now prominent because of the pandemic
The book begins with the original pioneers of germ theory, focusing on Louis Pasteur and Robert Koch in establishing that microorganisms cause disease. Zimmer walks the reader through some of their most famous experiments, which became a foundation for proving microbial causation of disease. Along the way, Zimmer introduces early debates on germ theory, including Pettigrew’s opposition, where he argued that diseases were caused by gaseous emissions from microbes rather than the microbes themselves. Though ultimately disproven, Pettigrew made lasting contributions, pioneering carbon dioxide measurement and establishing the Pettigrew limit (1,000 ppm of the gas), which is still used today as an indoor air standard. Zimmer also discusses the early development of masks, first for epidemic control in China (~1910) and later during the 1918 flu pandemic, even though their effectiveness was not well understood at the time. While Zimmer provides a great history of these key figures and their contributions, he also takes the reader through the evolving science of airborne disease transmission.
The 1930s and 1940s were a key period for airborne transmission research, though much of it was later forgotten and rediscovered. Among the early pioneers were William and Mildred Wells, who conducted studies at the Germantown School and Loch Raven Hospital, including early work on UV light disinfection. Richard Riley expanded on their research, developing mathematical models for airborne disease spread. Harold Egerton at MIT, who produced early sneeze photographs, provided further evidence of airborne transmission. Another key figure in airborne research was Peter Tsai, whose ideas on electrostatic filtration led to the development of the N95 respirator by 3M. Zimmer highlights how these early discoveries were largely ignored for decades, delaying progress in recognizing airborne transmission.
Despite these advancements, airborne transmission remained controversial. Charles V. Chapin, a major public health authority, argued that most diseases spread via large droplets rather than aerosols. This dogma became embedded in medical training and public health policy, despite evidence suggesting otherwise. The book details early debates on this topic that shaped how airborne transmission was understood and, in some cases, dismissed. Zimmer details early debates, including experiments in Toronto, where one scientist studied exhalation and sneezing at different heights. The findings were interpreted as supporting the large droplet model, reinforcing skepticism toward airborne spread.
Zimmer also examines the intersection of public health and biodefense. The book describes the history of biowarfare research in the U.S. and the debate between Alexander Langmuir and Theodore Rosebury, which mirrored, to some degree, the nuclear weapons divide between Oppenheimer and Teller. The book discusses how the CDC was originally formed as a quasi-military entity, with a dual role in civilian health monitoring and biological weapons surveillance. Zimmer contrasts the US program with that of the Soviet Union, which experienced multiple accidents, including the Sverdlovsk anthrax release. Zimmer critiques how biodefense policies under Bush and Clinton focused more on bioweapons threats (e.g., Iraq) than pandemic preparedness. Bush’s 2005 Biodefense Strategy, following the 2001 anthrax attacks, aimed to prepare for biological threats, including stockpiling N95 respirators and building a manufacturing facility—a plan that never materialized. The stockpile was depleted during H1N1 (2009) and never replenished, leaving the U.S. unprepared for COVID-19.
As the book builds toward the COVID-19 pandemic, Zimmer provides a historical overview of pandemics, including the 1918 flu, SARS, and MERS, emphasizing how each should have better informed the COVID-19 response. He details Event 201, a 2019 pandemic simulation that accurately predicted many of the failures that later occurred. Despite these warnings, when COVID-19 emerged, the WHO and CDC were slow to acknowledge airborne transmission, instead focusing on surface cleaning and six-foot distancing, which failed to fully address how the virus spread. Zimmer highlights how airborne transmission experts, including Lindsay Marr (V Tech), Bora Berry (MIT), and Donald Milton (University of Maryland) recognized early that COVID-19 was airborne, yet their findings were ignored. During this period, an informal group of 36 scientists petitioned the WHO to update its guidance, but their efforts were dismissed.
Zimmer also critiques inconsistent messaging in the pandemic, citing remarks by Donald Trump and Joe Biden that initially acknowledged the airborne spread but were later walked back. A WHO official even admitted COVID-19 was airborne before correcting himself, contributing to public confusion and delayed mitigation efforts. Eventually, the WHO quietly revised its stance without addressing its initial resistance. Zimmer concludes by discussing overlooked solutions, such as ventilation improvements, the Corsi-Rosenthal box, and far UV technology, which offer promising but underutilized mitigation strategies.
Wednesday, February 12, 2025
Thoughts on Esposito's Breslin: A Great Story about a Historic Storyteller
Sunday, August 20, 2023
Some Random Thoughts on Scaling Laws (Moore's, Eroom's, Lockheed's, &c)
I enjoyed this recent news story in The Economist on Lockheed's Law (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/22/can-the-west-build-up-its-armed-forces-on-the-cheap). The article describes an almost inverse scaling behavior where defense and military orders are getting more and more inexpensive, mostly because the allocation of the military budget to manpower is progressively decreasing, and it is possible for manufacturers to make munitions more efficiently. Lockheed's Law is extremely important in terms of how the overall market opportunities (using the language of Kolter et al.) will change in the future. One can imagine that war will become less manpower-intensive and more capital-intensive because of this type of scaling.
It is interesting to compare the scaling that we see in Lockheed's Law to other famous scaling relationships that have changed markets dramatically. The most famous is Moore's Law, which describes the exponential scaling of computer chips and computation in general over the last couple of decades. This scaling powered the computer and electronics industry. There are several related laws, such as Kryder's Law, which describes the exponential scaling in disk drive capacity. These laws made possible new market opportunities. The extreme case is the handheld or wristwatch computer and the fact that people now carry around computers that are much more powerful than the massive supercomputers of the past.
An associated law describes an opposite trend in the pharmaceutical industry: this "law," dubbed Eroom's Law (i.e., Moore's Law in reverse), states that drugs are becoming exponentially more expensive to put on the market. This is a great comparison to Lockheed's Law. The idea is that it is becoming much more expensive to make pharmaceuticals due to the ever-increasing requirements for research development and larger and more complicated clinical trials. A related scaling law describes the ability to sequence genomic material. This indicates a hyper-exponential increase that, at some points, is even faster than Moore's law. The scaling for DNA sequencing enables very large-scale biomedical research and diagnostic testing, but it hasn't made an impact on new drug discoveries because of the inverse scaling described in Eroom's law. Combined, Eroom's Law and the related law for DNA sequencing are reshaping the biomedical and pharmaceutical industry, making drugs comparatively more expensive but creating new opportunities for diagnostics, which are very cheap. This, in turn, is creating market opportunities for companies that are marketing only drug targets and associated research but don't have the capital to develop a drug themselves.
Altogether, different scaling laws illuminate large-scale trends that are dramatically impacting production as well as market opportunities. What was inconceivable 30 years ago is now trivial because of the exponential scaling in Moore's Law. Perhaps Lockheed's Law will lead to a type of warfare in the future that is so capital-intensive that it will be fundamentally different from the type of engagement we saw in the First and Second World Wars, and this, in turn, will reshape the market for defense products.
Can the West build up its armed forces on the cheap?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/22/can-the-west-build-up-its-armed-forces-on-the-cheap
Breaking Eroom’s Law
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00059-3
Moore's Law
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
DNA Sequencing Costs
https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data
The bigger-is-better approach to AI is running out of road
Saturday, June 25, 2022
Thoughts on 3 of Kandel's books on the Brain (The Disordered Mind, In Search of Memory & Reductionism in Art and Brain Science): Different Views of the Elephant
Here, I summarize my thoughts on three books by Eric Kandel: The Disordered Mind, In Search of Memory, and Reductionism in Art and Brain Science: Bridging the Two Cultures. Eric Kandel is a great American scientist and winner of the Nobel Prize. Interestingly, he started his career as a humanities major at Harvard, and he writes very much in that tradition.
The books cover various topics, including psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia, the molecular basis of memory, and the relationship between the subconscious and art, and incorporate his recollections of his life journey and world history, particularly related to Vienna. While the books focus on different things, they all look at different aspects of the same subject, like taking different views of one elephant.
When discussing psychiatric diseases, I like how Dr. Kandel described the root causes and history of schizophrenia and autism. These diseases trace much of their early history to Vienna and some famous early brain scientists there, such as Kraepelin and Asperger. Within the topic of memory, I liked Dr. Kandel's reflection on how memory is stored in synapses from inhibitory and excitatory neurons, and, in parallel fashion, these synaptic memories turn into molecular events and gene expression through activating and repressing transcription factors of the CREB family. Kandel also talks about his own memories. It was striking how Vienna was such a center of scholarship in the early 20th century and so quickly fell into tragedy with the advent of the Nazis and has changed dramatically since then.
Finally, I enjoyed reading about Dr. Kandel's relationship between the subconscious and art. He talked about how many recent artists have tried to move beyond the conscious representation of the figure and harness their subconscious and how abstract art can play into our deep mental processes, such as face recognition.
Overall, I found these books very interesting reads that give an encompassing picture of both the mind and a great person.
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Saturday, April 30, 2022
Thoughts on Schonbrun's Performance Cortex: A great account of how sport is as much about mind as muscle
The Performance Cortex: How Neuroscience Is Redefining Athletic Genius
by Zach Schonbrun

Saturday, September 04, 2021
Thoughts on MacIntyre's Spy & the Traitor: A Gripping Account of a Russian Agent that's Hard to Believe is Non-fiction
Ben Macintyre: 9781101904190: Amazon.com: Books
twitter: @BenMacintyre1
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